Experts predict it is already time for 3.5G and 4G Existing 3G services are "nothing short of a disappointment" that have been rejected by consumers, forcing the communications industry to push ahead earlier than expected with implementation of next-generation 3.5G and 4G systems, industry experts said today. The knock-on effect of the failure of WCDMA-based 3G to meet public expectations is the creation of a void between 3.5G (HSDPA/HSUPA) and what will become 4G. The need to plug that gap has become apparent, according to the latest report from Informa Telecoms & Media. "There is concern within the leading wireless operators and manufacturers that the mass-market take-up of mobile triple play could cause havoc on existing infrastructure if they do not act today," said report author Nick Lane. "WCDMA has been nothing short of a disappointment. Although HSDPA will deliver true 3G applications, the HSDPA networks will become congested if these high-speed services are adopted by consumers in significant numbers. The need to progress the wireless networks is here today." As HSDPA implementation commences in during 2005 and runs throughout 2006, followed by HSUPA in late 2006 to 2007, the world's leading mobile operators and manufacturers are already casting doubts on WCDMA's mid-term effectiveness, according to Informa. The analyst firm warned that WCDMA/HSDPA networks run the risk of saturation and/or congestion if there is rapid 3G take-up over the next two years ahead of the expected mobile data service mass-market acceptance in 2008 driven by triple-play voice, data and video services. "By increasing the bandwidth to 10MHz, Super 3G can offer throughput of 30Mbps in the wide area and more than 100Mbps in the local area. Evolved UMTS standardisation work is scheduled for completion by June 2007," Informa stated. However, for this next generation Evolved UMTS to be successful Informa believes that there will need to be a complete overhaul of existing standards procedures. The analyst firm warned that, with so many companies involved in the Evolved UMTS process, there is a danger that vendors will develop multiple technologies and slow down the standardisation process. Source: VNUNet
